Drew Wells 
It’s Game Day, Week 2! Rise up, Roughnecks fans… and Protect the Rig! In keeping with what we said last time around, here is the positional advantage breakdown as we see it at Ambush Sports Network, written by yours, truly, and our Arlington Renegades correspondent (and founder of Ambush Sports Network) Josh Mousel!
Our weekly breakdowns associated with the Houston Roughnecks games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the matchup.
Quarterbacks
Drew Wells (HOU)
The Roughnecks kicked off the season with a dominating win at home over the Orlando Guardians, 33-12. A vast array of playmakers made themselves known, including quarterback Brandon Silvers passing for the second most yardage in week one. Even backup Cole McDonald got in on the touchdown party! Meanwhile, the Renegades put up an overall abysmal performance, unable to muster an offensive touchdown against the Las Vegas Vipers in a squeaked-out 22-20 win in Arlington. Both teams still have questions to ask, however. For Houston, can Brandon Silvers stop throwing careless/unnecessary interceptions? For Arlington, is Drew Plitt the answer, or do they give a backup a chance to spark the offense? Either way, the answer is clear in my eyes…
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Josh Mousel (ARL)
Even with a poor offensive showing in week one, QB Drew Plitt put up a 76% completion percentage accounting for 172 passing yards. His average yards per attempt (YDS/ATT) was second in the league (6.9), behind Guardians’ second-half stand-in, Quinten Dormany. Plitt looked composed and looked the part of a pro quarterback. He will need a little help in the run game to take some pressure off, and if he can take what the defense presents, we may see the first Renegades’ offensive TD. Silvers put on a pretty solid show in week one, but the two interceptions could have cost the Roughnecks a tighter game. The Renegades proved to be ball hawks, with a nose for the ball, and the endzone.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Running Backs
Drew Wells (Hou)
Houston’s running backs are a bit of a different breed. They are more like slot receivers lined up in the backfield. With that said, they still averaged 4 yards per carry on the legs of Max Borghi and others within that room, which I affectionately refer to as “The Committee”. There is a HEAVY level of talent in that room. Meanwhile, Dallas mustered a meager 2.7 yards per carry against Las Vegas with a first down run percentage of just less than 10%, good for second-last in the league. That said, Houston’s defense gave up around 4.7 yards per carry to Orlando in Week 1, likely due to playing soft zone defense to protect a lead.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Josh Mousel (ARL)
De’Veon Smith and Keith Ford didn’t give a ton of help to Drew Plitt. The talented bruising back in Smith has been a force for the Orlando Apollos (AAF) and the Tampa Bay Vipers (XFL 2.0). With a long run of 9 yards and an average of 2.8 YPC, it’s no surprise the Renegades didn’t have much of an offensive presence. Alternatively, the Roughnecks RBs provided some relief to Brandon Silvers, averaging 5.3 and 4.2 YPC. This game may become a grinder, and the RBs may be the difference maker.
Advantage : Houston Roughnecks
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Drew Wells (HOU)
The Roughnecks’ offense undoubtedly put up a great performance at home to open the XFL season. Behind guys like Jontre Kirklin and Deontay Burnett making unbelievable catches, both with a touchdown reception to their names, Houston’s wideouts and tight ends proved to be a huge threat moving forward. Before Houston kicked off their season, we all watched as Arlington struggled to find an offensive identity. That doesn’t mean that they were wholly incompetent, however. Turnovers really killed anything that Arlington had going offensively throughout the game against the Vipers, so their passing game situation is still very much up in the air from an analysis standpoint.
Advantage – Houston Roughnecks
Josh Mousel (ARL)
Outside of Sam Cannella, the receivers for the Renegades didn’t make much of an impact. This one looks to me, like the clearest advantage in this matchup. Jontre Kirklin and Deontay Burnett went for 71 and 90 yards, respectively.
Advantage – Houston Roughnecks
Offensive Line
Drew Wells (HOU)
This is where Houston’s offense really shined to kick off the year. When both your running and passing offense are clicking, there really is only one group to thank for that success, and it is the offensive line. Sage Doxtater proved to be an absolute animal, and really the entire group protected the quarterback fairly well. There were a few lapses in said protection, but that is to be expected in Week 1. Arlington on the other hand could not run block OR pass block in critical moments in the game. It was hard to judge their offensive performance as a whole, but it is clear that they need to step their o-line play up a level in order to help keep turnovers down and production up.
Advantage – Houston Roughnecks
Josh Mousel (ARL)
Ita hard to say much on this for Arlington. They didn’t look particularly well on run blocking, and Drew Plitt had to get shifty on dropbacks. The Roughnecks gave up a few sacks to the Guardians, but I’m not too concerned about the Houston O-line play.
Advantage – Houston Roughnecks
Defensive Line
Drew Wells (HOU)
What a performance for the defensive line last week for Houston! The league got to watch Trent Harris go absolutely bonkers with 4.5 sacks (an XFL record) and Tim Ward constantly have his name called. This defensive line is insanely talented, but also very deep. Comparatively, Arlington’s defensive line had Luis Perez running for his life the entire second half of their matchup. It seemed like the Renegades dialed up their pressure packages and absolutely overwhelmed Las Vegas’ offensive line in the process. As a group, they were dominant for the last half of the matchup, but they don’t have the multitude of individual talent that Houston does in this position group. (However, shout out to the nearly-unstoppable T.J. Barnes! Big #72 is a name to watch in this matchup!)
Advantage – Houston Roughnecks
Josh Mousel (ARL)
The defensive line for the Renegades showed up and showed out, particularly in the second half. TJ Barnes ended the game with a massive sack, punctuating the solid D-line play. However, Trent Harris and the defensive line for Houston were INSANE. Trent Harris was the first Defensive Player of the Week for Ambush Sports for his record-setting performance. You could argue the position is a push but with Harris performing the way he did in week one, I lean slightly toward Houston.
Advantage – Houston Roughnecks
Linebackers
This position group was an area that was very hard to evaluate when watching the Roughnecks’ Week 1 film. Houston almost exclusively played in a soft zone, and while they were solid in coverage, they expectedly (because of the defensive sets) gave up a high yards-per-rush average. Meanwhile, the Renegades’ linebacker corps was busy causing turnovers and scoring touchdowns in the second half of their matchup. We know the talent is there for Houston, but it hasn’t had a chance to prove much thus far.
Advantage – Arlington Renegades
Josh Mousel (ARL)
The Renegades’ linebacker group was the “offense” for Al did all the scoring and none of the resting. They were a nightmare for the Vegas Vipers, causing turnovers, scoring touchdowns, and causing havoc in the Vipers’ backfield. Not knocking the Roughnecks linebackers, but this one is an easy pick for me.
Advantage – Arlington Renegades
Defensive Backs
Drew Wells (HOU)
For Houston, Ajene Harris had TWO (looking at you, Dean Blandino) interceptions. He was all over the field and made several plays, along with the likes of A.J. Hendy and Will Likely. Arlington’s secondary was good but didn’t seem to have much to do as the linebackers and d-line were thrashing the Vipers. I’ll have to give the slight edge here to Houston, in a position group that is very talented for both squads.
Advantage – Houston Roughnecks
Josh Mousel (ARL)
In what should have been a 5 interception night for the Houston DBs, one was called a TD for Orlando and one was flat-out dropped. Even so, the Roughnecks were all over the field. The Renegades’ defensive backs got burnt deep on a couple of plays early on. The Renegades’ defense is stout, but the DBs might be the week link.
Advantage – Houston Roughnecks
Win and Score Predictions
Drew Wells (HOU)
Advantage Count – Houston (6), Arlington (1)
The defensive showing in the second half of their game against the Vipers saw the Renegades shoot way up in the power rankings that most sportswriters put together. I felt the opposite. Yes, the defense was dynamite in the second half, but what about the first? What about the offense seeming incapable of holding onto the ball or making explosive plays? Meanwhile, Houston dominated in all facets of their game, despite a couple of mistakes by Brandon Silvers late in the game. Unless the Renegades fix a lot of problems, I don’t see them winning this game. Houston, 32-17
Josh Mousel (ARL)
Advantage Count – Houston (5), Arlington (2)
The running backs and offensive line really need to show up in week two for the Renegades. If the offense can get enough push on those 3rd and 1s in or near the red zone, the Renegades’ defense can dial up some crazy packages. Brandon Silvers will have to play a clean game since the Renegades have a nose for the football. If Arlington can get a few takeaways and can limit the Houston “big” plays, Arlington does have a shot in this game. With that said, I think Houston hits a home run or two and sneaks by in this game. Houston, 21-17
Betting Line and O/U
Line: Hou -5 O/U: 40
Drew Wells (HOU)
I take the over in this one and believe that Houston covers easily. This is a classic trap game, however, I feel the same way that oddsmakers seem to on this one. (Remember, I am undefeated on Houston betting picks this season, hitting both the Line Bet and O/U last week. You’re welcome. Also, where’s my cut!?)
Josh Mousel (ARL)
With the level of defense we saw from Arlington in the second half, I lean the under in this one. I think that Arlington keeps it close and covers the +5.
