
With week 3 of the XFL upon us, this promises to be some of the best football we have seen. The Roughnecks and Brahmas square off Sunday. The DC defenders take on the St. Louis Battlehawks, and the Seattle Sea dragons seek their first win against the Vegas Vipers.
Finally, Arlington and Orlando meet in the first of their 2 divisional matchups. Arlington writer Josh Mousel and myself have the shakedown for what could be a fascinating match-up.
Offense
Jesse
Orlando’s offense is in dire need of an overhaul. The passing game has been absolutely anemic—still no standout yet between Paxton Lynch and Deondre Francois. Quinten Dormady was the lone bright spot in the passing attack, however, he is currently on the reserve list.
Jah-Maine Martin and Kelvin Taylor were effective against San Antonio, however, mistakes and the second-half score wrote them out of the game. Orlando has talented Wide Receivers, however, has had issues getting them the ball.
On the other hand, Arlington’s offense hasn’t fared much better. So far this season, they have only managed two touchdowns. Their running game has been below average, even with De’Veon Smith, running back for the Tampa Bay Vipers in 2020.
The Renegades have made a quarterback change, with Kyle Sloter set to start. Drew Plitt hasn’t shined in first starts, only managing 2 touchdowns, and throwing 2 interceptions. Sloter has the potential to be game-changing, but this should be a defensive struggle. The offense that best sets up their defense will take home this game.
Advantage: Arlington
Josh
Drama, confusion, and compounding mistakes have been the Achilles’ Heel for the Orlando Guardians. Standout performers like Jah-Maine Martin provide a spark, then ride the bench for multiple series. The Guardians have the pieces to be great, but the QB situation has been a killer.
Arlington, on the other hand, has made a quarterback switch. Kyle Sloter, of Minnesota Viking preseason and USFL fame, will man the helm. Drew Plitt played well enough through two weeks but seemed unable to “create” the plays when the team needed it.
Plitt was the unfortunate beneficiary of a very stagnant running game. The Renegades recognized and signed Kenneth Farrow to complement De’Veon Smith. The Sloter move would create offense in two ways– he can create plays, and a better passing game should open up the run game.
Sal Cannella, third in receptions through two weeks, gets an instant boost in fantasy and real-life applications. But look for receivers like Brandon Arconado and Tyler Vaughns to take a step up in week 3.
Advantage: Arlington
Defense
Jesse
Orlando’s offense has wasted two pretty good defensive efforts from the Guardians. In game two, they held San Antonio to -6 yards rushing in the first half. The game only fell out of hand after numerous stalled drives, mistakes, and turnovers finally broke them. Terrance Plummer and Mike Lee both had standout performances, with Mike Lee earning the coveted Ambush sports Co-POTW honors. However, on the Arlington side, their defense has been just as noteworthy.
Arlington has the distinction of winning a game without an offensive touchdown. In week one, Arlington’s defense returned two interceptions for a touchdown to secure the victory. In week two, they kept the game against Houston close right up until the very end. With two offenses still finding their identity, this game will more than likely be determined by which defense can make things happen.
Advantage: Arlington
Josh
This one is tough. Though the score hasn’t shown it through two weeks, the Orlando defense has been VERY good. The letdowns on offense and special teams have put the defense in some tough spots.
Arlington made a statement in week one, winning the game on two defensive touchdowns and zero offensive touchdowns is an impressive feat. The Renegades’ defense played well against Houston in week 2, but the Roughnecks were able to pull away right at the end. Orlando fans can relate to the lack of offensive support.
Advantage: Orlando
Coaching
Jesse
This one feels like it’s not even close. On the one side, you have Bob Stoops. Stoops’ track record as a college coach speaks for itself. His work is evident in the team as the offense continues to improve from week to week. His defense is well-coached and disciplined, capitalizing on the other team’s mistakes.
Then there is Orlando. Terrell Buckley has the feel of someone still learning how to coach. Questionable clock management, undisciplined play, and accountability issues have all surfaced just two weeks into his first season. For me, this is a no-brainer.
Advantage: Arlington
Josh
Coach Terrell Buckley is in his first head coaching opportunity. And unfortunately, his week two halftime interview is the most noted accomplishment. I know, it is not easy to coach at this level. In a startup league, he didn’t get the fair shake of “working out the kinks” in a preseason. But accountability needs to be seen. The mistakes on the Orlando sideline are discipline and mental. That comes from the top down.
Bob Stoops has been successful before. He has the advantage over Buckley in experience by a long shot. There was a lot of talk early on if the game had passed him by, but Coach Stoops has had his team in the hunt, even with an anemic offense. Making the decision early to pull the Plitt for Sloter swap, further shows he can make big decisions quickly.
Advantage: Arlington
Betting Line
Jesse
As its stands, Arlington Renegades are 8.5-point favorites in this game. I very much feel this game will be a defensive struggle. Combining that with one of the more generous spreads I’ve seen this season, I would take Orlando to Cover. The over-under is set at 36.5. Most XFL games this season have hit the over, However, I do not see that happening here. Smart money takes the under.
Josh
DraftKings has Orlando at +8 (at my writing) and that is the steepest spread we have seen so far. I hear Jesse is expecting a defensive battle with a low score. I feel the exact opposite. This has the feel of a blowout, one way or the other. For my money, I’m taking Arlington to cover AND I’m taking the over (37.5).
Final Predictions
Jesse
Arlington 18-6
Josh
Orlando-15
Arlington-28
Orlando at Arlington is on FX and ESPN+ at 4 ET