Week 4 of the XFL kicks off Saturday night in Orlando, with the Guardians facing off against the Houston Roughnecks (7 p.m. EST, FX/Espn+). I am joined by Ambush Sports’ Houston correspondent Drew Wells as we take a deep dive into what we expect to see from this game tonight. Let’s get right into The Shakedown, Week 4!
Our weekly breakdowns associated with the Houston Roughnecks games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the matchup. Find last week’s edition of “The Shakedown” here.
Quarterbacks
Jesse
This one feels like a no-brainer. On the one side, you have Brandon Silvers. He is second in the league in passing yards, and in a tie for the most touchdowns in the league with 7. Conversely, you have the revolving door that doesn’t seem to have yielded any fruit. Paxton Lynch has been less than convincing. Deondre Francois has been equally ineffective. Finally, Quinten Dormady, the one bright spot at QB in week one, is no longer with the team. Orlando just signed former USF quarterback Quinton Flowers, but his role in this game is likely to be minimal.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Drew
The advantage here should be obvious for now. Had Flowers come around to start the season for Orlando, we may be singing a different song, however, Orlando only just signed him to take over as the “Field General”. Silvers is currently top 3 in the league in most major passing stats and has countless weapons behind a good offensive line. While Orlando showed a bit of an uptick last week, it wasn’t really behind great QB play.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Running Backs
Jesse
The running back room at Orlando has been in a weird state. So often, Orlando has been down multiple touchdowns and had to abandon the run completely. When they haven’t Jah-Maine Martin has looked pretty effective. With the exception of last week against Arlington. In a close game, Martin’s two fumbles and 25 total yards were more than likely the difference in that game. Houston’s running back, Max Bhorgi, is third in the league in total rushing yards. Max has also been a very effective receiver out of the backfield tallying up another ten receptions. Again, a pretty easy decision here.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Drew
In the last matchup, Orlando looked to have a strong run game. This was during week one, and despite having plenty of run yards to spare Orlando never really was in the game. Houston played a very soft zone for most of that matchup, so it was a bit of a foregone conclusion that the Guardians would have run game success. This time around, Houston looks to snuff out any semblance of offensive prowess that Orlando can show. Houston looks to ride the greased-lightning pair of Max Borghi and Brycen Alleyne after they have softened the defense. Watch for big plays in the run game for Houston today.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Jesse
At the beginning of the season, the wide receiver room for Orlando looked like one of its best assets. At this point in time, only Cody Latimer hasn’t been a disappointment. Charleston Rambo and Eli Rogers have had a hard time getting any traction. While this could very easily be blamed on lackluster, consistent quarterback play, their production just hasn’t been there. On the other side, Jontre Kirklin and Deontay Burnett have both been reliable and consistent options for Silvers
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Drew
On any other team, Cody Latimer would be nearly unstoppable. Honestly, he has been the only real threat that Orlando has shown so far this season. Outside of big names like Josh Gordon in Seattle, Houston quietly has two of the premier receivers in the XFL in Jontre Kirklin and Deontay Burnett. Add in guys like Cedric Byrd, and top-to-bottom Houston has the best WR/TE group in this matchup by far.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Offensive Line
Jesse
Orlando’s offensive line has made improvement from week one, but their pass protection has been terrible. Undisciplined penalties aside, they have not been able to keep whoever’s playing quarterback upright. Houston had a feeding frenzy the last time these two teams met, collecting 7 sacks in the process. If Orlando stands any chance this cannot happen again. Houston’s offensive line, however, has only surrendered 6 sacks in three games.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Drew
This is a pretty easy choice to make. Part of Orlando’s poor QB play has been because of a bad offensive line. In a game where Houston comes into town with easily the best pass rush in the league, it is unlikely that the Guardians muster any kind of success unless their line has progressed leaps and bounds in the last week.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Defensive Line
Jesse
Orlando’s offense has been so inconsistent that they have wasted pretty good defensive performance. In week 2, San Antonio was at -6 yards rushing at halftime. Arlington was only able to manage 3 yards a carry. However, Houston’s defensive line has been nothing short of dominant. Seven sacks in week one, 5 in week 2, and in week 3 Jack Coan was held to 64 yards passing. Orlando’s defensive line is good, and Houston’s is potentially game-breaking.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Drew
Jesse broke this down well above. No need to repeat stats or harp on the Roughnecks’ pass rush anymore. Orlando has shown good flashes and streaky individual efforts, but the fact of the matter is that Houston’s defensive line can change the game in a heartbeat.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Linebacker
Jesse
This may be the only spot on this team that approaches a push. Former UCF product Terrence Plummer has been all over the field. Terrence Smith has been a menacing presence in Orlando games this year. The same could be said for Emmanuel Ellerbee and Tavante Beckett, both are toward the top of the league in tackles. This is probably one of the few areas of this game where there is no clear winner.
Advantage: Push
Drew
Against San Antonio last week, Houston’s linebackers were put into a precarious position by the Brahma’s balanced passing and rushing attacks. They enjoyed a comfortable first half, but that second half really made them hustle. Orlando has had excellent linebacker play, as they have seemed to be the strength of that defensive unit. Have to agree with the “enemy” here.
Advantage: Push
Defensive Backs
Jesse
The Guardians have had interceptions from Marcus Murphy and Matt Elam, and Mike Lee is a tackling machine. Mike Lee, for those of you who don’t remember, was the Ambush Sports Week 2 Co-Player of the Week for his performance against the Brahmas. As much as I would like to say this is an advantage, Houston leads the XFL in interceptions. Houston has had 5 interceptions through 3 games. While I will admit it is closer than on the offensive side, there is still a clear answer here.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Drew
The Guardians’ secondary is not something to be trifled with! In what is likely the final matchup between these two teams for the season, it will take a big effort to shut down the Houston wide receivers corps. Houston’s backend has been lights out, riding Ajene Harris’ leadership and playmaking. With guys like William Likely and A.J. Hendy contributing, the edge definitely goes to Houston’s defensive backs.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Betting Line
Line: HOU -8.5 O/U: 37.5
Jesse
This game, to me, has much the same feel as the last one. Orlando is still finding itself, and Houston is rolling. If I were to bet money on the game, I would bet on Houston to cover and take the over.
Drew
If this game were later in the season and Flowers had a bit of time in the offense, I could see this being a bit closer. At this point in time, however, Houston is far and away the better team. I’ll take Houston and the over.
Win and Score Predictions
Jesse
Advantage Count: Houston Roughnecks (6), Push (1)
Unfortunately, an easy call… Houston, 30-15
Drew
Advantage Count: Houston Roughnecks (6), Push (1)
In football, this is about as close as it gets to a “done deal”. With that said, you’re always one injury away from losing your lynchpins as a team. Houston, 38-12