Bowl game season is officially underway. For those many of anxiously awaiting the kickoff of the College football playoff, we do have some exciting games to tide of us over. This brings us to the Boca Raton Bowl, hosted at FAU Owl’s stadium. The 8-5 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers from conference USA take on the James Madison Dukes. JMU, likewise, got here on an 8-4 record in the Sun Belt Conference. this game represents a chance for the dukes to secure their first bowl win in school history.

How we got here

The Hilltoppers season started on a bit of a sour note, traveling to Tuscaloosa, and losing 63-0 to the 5th ranked Crimson Tide. This proved to be a blip, however. They rattled off three straight wins, including dominant performances over Eastern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State. A 26-21 win over Toledo puts them at 3-1 on the season. In their last game before conference play, WKU would suffer a devasting one point loss at the hand of Boston College.

Conference play kicks off and the Hilltoppers soon find themselves 7-2. Wins over Kennesaw State, Sam Houston State, UTEP, and New Mexico State left them 4-0 in conference play. Back-to-Back Loses (Louisiana Tech, Liberty) and a win over Jacksonville State would earn a conference championship bid. Unfortunately, Jacksonville State won Conference USA in dominant fashion, thrashing the hilltoppers 52-12.

James Madison

The Dukes started their season off 4-0, highlighted by a dominant win over power four North Carolina and a 63-7 beat-down of Ball State. However, this did not last. Travelling to Louisiana Monroe saw the dukes lose a heartbreaker, 21-19, to the Warhawks. The next two weeks saw a dominant win over Coastal Carolina (39-7), and a 28-14 loss to the Georgia Southern Eagles. Afterwards, JMU returned to their winning ways, with wins over Southern Miss, Georgia State, and Old Dominion. Conversely, a two-game skid to Appalachian State and Marshall finished the season 8-4.

By the Numbers

Western Kentucky comes into this game averaging 26.9 points per game, 75th nationally. They boast the nations 32nd best passing offense at 268 yards per game, led by quarterback Caden Veltkamp. Veltkamp finished the 2024 campaign with just over 2800 yards with 23 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Wide receiver Kisean Johnson quickly became the go to receiver, hauling in 66 catches for 855 yards and 7 touchdowns. On the other hand, the Hilltoppers had issues running the football. 116 yards per game (109th nationally), with Elijah Young (846 yards 3 touchdowns) seeing the bulk of the work. On Defense, they surrender 24.5 points per game (65th) led by cornerback Devonte’ Matthews (90 Tackles 4 Forced Fumbles and 2 INT’s.

James Madison

The dukes come into this game averaging 36.7 points per game (17th). This comes behind a strong rushing attack (189.8 yards per game, 30th). George Pettaway leads all rushers with 880 yards and 5 touchdowns. Quarterback Alonza Barnett III leads the nations 79th ranked passing attack, throwing for 2,598 yards and 26 touchdowns with only 4 interceptions. Yamir Knight led all JMU wideouts with 567 yards on 49 receptions and 4 touchdowns. James Madison on paper has a stout defense 20.8 ppg (27th), led by safety Jacob Thomas (70 tackles, 3 INT’s).

James Madison Wins if they:

Play their game. If they are able to get the running game going against a suspect defense. While the passing game hasn’t been fantastic, Barnett has taken care of the ball, with only 4 interceptions. On the o the other side, the duke’s defense has played admirably all season. If they are able to contain Veltkamp’s passing attack, they have a great chance of taking home the victory.

Western Kentucky Wins if they:

Are able to get going in the passing game. Caden Veltkamp needs to find Kisean early and often to match serve with James Madison. To win, the Hilltoppers need to get running back Elijah Moore going, to take some of the pressure off of the passing attack. Against one of the groups of five’s better defenses, WKU will have to play mistake free football. On the other side, WKU’s defense will have to step up. They have a tall task today. WKU defense will have to find a way to hold JMU under their season average, and force turnovers.

Betting Line

James Madison comes into this game as a 7.5-point favorite, and ESPN analytics give the dukes a 72 percent chance at a victory.

Predictions

James Madison’s rushing attack looks to be too much for the Hilltoppers. If JMU’s offensive line is able to move them off the ball consistently it will prove too much to overcome. JMU wins 31-24.